Senan McGrath outlined the ESB’s commitment to EV infrastructure giving a set target of 1,500 on-street charge points by the end of 2011. Paul Witherington then went on to claim that the electric car is more inefficient than the traditional combustion engine (28% versus 29%). This was disputed by Dr Smith who pointed out that this was probably assuming the worst case scenario of one world and the best case scenario of another. He did, however, attack the idea of EV fleets leading to significant carbon savings. A tenth of the national fleet producing zero emissions would lead to  an overall emissions reduction of 1% since transport only accounts for 10% of the country’s overall emissions.

The statements from the representative OEMs were less interesting. Apparently the LEAF is a ‘blast to drive’ and GM gave it’s typical rehashing of it’s plug-in concept. Craig Cheetham did give a delivery date: September 2011 for the Opel Ampera. We’ll keep our fingers crossed.

As the debate opened up to the floor there seemed to be a collective sense of uncertainty but it didn’t accrue. The discussion gradually turned to the Irish context with Mr McGrath repeatedly pointing out that the ESB want EVs alongside its strategy to ramp up on renewables. Paul Witherington did eventually concede that his view of EVs being a ‘non-starter’ were not so applicable in light of what he called the discovery of ‘free energy’.

Mr Witherington’s remarks made it ever more clear that the dividing line between believers and sceptics lies with renewable energy and potentially the green economy as a whole. It does make sense. If you believe that we will never alter a carbon intensive power generation system then the electric car will never lead to a significant reductions in emissions. Mr Witherington pushed this further. If carbon is the issue, then according to his efficiency figures the mass uptake of EVs would actually increase the output of carbon emissions.

His claims take advantage of an odd efficiency inversion with regard to the electric car. On a motorways, roughly the same amount of energy is involved as the internal combustion engine.  In an urban context this is vastly different. The stop-start nature of our commuting habits do favour the electric vehicle by a factors of something 2.5 to 1.

It must also be pointed out that Mr Witherington felt at liberty to use the theoretical ‘MUSIC’ combustion engine in his comparisons without taking into account any future developments in battery technology. The floor did ask this question and Mr McGrath explained how a number of different chemistries were being developed., some with highly promising charge times and energy densities.

Dr Smith’s point still stands. You can’t argue with the basic maths. 10% of 10% is indeed 1% but the ESB made it clear than EVs were not being thought of as a panacea. As Mr Smith put it, ‘carbon is a non-issue here’, but only if we look at reduction measures from a very narrow lens. Mr McGrath countered that the 10% target for 2020 was just ‘a signpost’. Taken away from the bigger picture, it’s a relatively meaningless target. The real meat of the policy measure revolves around more distant dates: 2035 and 2050. The ESB plans to be carbon neutral by the former. If they ramp up wind generation capacity, they will need places to store the excess energy and they see electric cars as one potential solution.

It is worth noting that there seemed to be more to the general conviction than load capacity. Graham Brennan of SEI spoke up at the end. He made it clear that transport electrification was about more than shaving a percentage point off our total carbon emissions. It is about energy security and promoting the drive towards a different kind of economy where renewables play a big part.

The meeting finished up on a positive note with most participants armed firmly with an appreciation of the Irish context.

Forum Debates the EV for Ireland is a post from: motricity

Oops, wrong picture… is a post from: motricity

NXR: Style Comparison is a post from: motricity

The new logo of the REVA G-Wiz owners club

I saw the prototype of this car when I was in Bangalore in March. I’ve had to keep quiet about it ever since.

The Reva design team have been guided by Dilip Chhabria, who designed the Aston Martin Vanquish. It really looks good in the flesh. Its a nicely styled car which really does have a ‘wow’ impact about it. The front three-quarters view they’ve released here does not do the car justice - there are lots of lovely details to it and it really does look good.

At the Frankfurt Motor Show on September 16th, more details and all pricing will be revealed. So far, RECC has given us a taste of what’s to come. Their REVive system, for example, is a telematically enabled spare battery. It means that a text message or a call to the international service centre will unlock an extra chunk of range. This is an interesting innovation, especially considering that the range stands at 160km anyway.

Performance is going to be in focus at the motor show as journalists get to test the vehicle. We have no figures on torque but top speed is supposed to be 104km per hour. Now, add this to the fact that the car is a car (M1 class, not quadracycle) and you get a new degree of motorway capability. It will fall under NCAP crash test regulations.

In Dublin terms, that new middle lane of the M50 will open up to the electric car. But when exactly? We’ll have to wait another two weeks before we get the export production dates but it will be in 2010. Full information will be on www.revaglobal.com when it’s launched on the 16th.

Until then, we can only tantalise you with pictures. Keep an eye out for more because the NXR image doesn’t seem to do the styling justice. The NXG model looks very interesting. Iconic from the front, weird from the side and promising the world in terms of performance. This is something we know very little about but the concept sports car will be on show at Frankfurt. Look forward to seeing you all there.

The REVA NXR is a post from: motricity

If you want to drive on Irish roads in an EV tomorrow, then you’re looking at a 75-80km stated range for either ten or sixteen grand (respectively, the REVAi and the MegaCity and they both hit about 80kmph). One problem for manufacturers, buyers and dealers alike is that these numbers are less than guaranteed and people know this.

It’s important, first of all, to face up to these concerns. Yes, headlamps and the radio affect the range. But the fact that people tend to bring this up underlines a kind of pessimism. Why? Because headlamps and radios aren’t really your main concern in an EV. You keep your range in tact by driving efficiently, especially up serious inclines. Needless to say, zealous use of the A/C will also get you into trouble and you probably shouldn’t wait in a car park for an hour with the heat on and the stereo blaring.

Such range diminishing factors are rare enough but convincing people that an EV can suit there needs is a very tough game. You can point out that even a 50km range only rules out serious commuters (as the crow flies, it’s generally no more than 15-20km from Dublin city centre to its outskirts beyond the M50) and you can even provide some great stats:

93% of all car journeys are less than 25 miles.

97% of all car journeys are less than 50 miles.’
Professor Julia King, government advisor, King Report 2008 UK.

In the EU, 50% of all car journeys can be served by a 30 mile range (that’s there and back).
Plugged in Final Report 2007

But most people know this already. What they’re really afraid of is being caught out - this is ‘range anxiety’. If you live 10-15km from work, an EV will do the ‘commute-work-commute’ part of the day. But what else can you expect from it? What about a lunchtime errand, picking up the kids from school or making it to something in the evening (and back)? Yes, it all might come to less than 75km, but what about the contingencies – hills, nighttimes, coldness, your new U2 album…

The answer might surprise a few people. In doing some work for GreenAer, my colleague and myself managed to push the car very close to its limit one day. We didn’t get 75km out of it. But then again, we didn’t run to a halt either. The very last journey was the only worrying part. Everything was still fine by the time I got home (A). But when my colleague made her own way back (near B), she reported driving very slowly up one particular hill. The REVAi has a red indicator light that tells you when you’re driving too inefficiently to maintain the stated range. With about 5-10% left in the battery, keeping the red light off can mean going very easy on the accelerator indeed.

I’m writing this because I’d like to illustrate just how much driving we actually did before that final journey. In a nutshell, I drove to work (B), did a number of trips in and out of town (C, D) and then my colleague dropped me home (A) and made her own way home in the car. This was all based on a full overnight charge and nothing else.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with this city, I think it suffices to say that it’s not without its hills or its traffic. And this was a cold day. We used the heaters (sparingly) and the radio was on most of the time. I’d say the headlights were in operation for the last 15km.

So here is the breakdown in detail. You’ll have to add on a few kilometres since I’m not disclosing exactly where either of us live and it should also be taken into account that I did do a quick test drive for someone in Mount Street and this means showing what the car can do when driven aggressively. The maps are all at different zooms but in case you don’t recognise much of it, keep an eye on the M50 (sometimes in blue at the bottom left) and Dun Laoghaire Harbour. The distances are straight from Google Maps.

Going into office Cabinteely - Blackrock 5.0km
Lunck and back Blackrock -Rowan Park - Blackrock 3.2km
Collect and back Blackrock - Monkstown - Blackrock 2.2km
Into town and back Blackrock - St. Stephen’s Green - Blackrock 19km
ANd again, almost Blackrock - Mount St. - Blackrock 19km
Dropped home Blackrock - Cabinteely 5.0km
Final Part Cabinteely - Monkstown 5.6km
Total Distance	52.6km

Now, I think it should be clear that this is an example of a relatively unusual day’s driving. Plenty of people do a lot more than this as standard. A study recently put the amount of Dubliners doing more than 45km at 20%. But being part of the other 80% doesn’t mean you’ll never find yourself running in and out of town twice on top of a pile of unexpected errands. The REVAi performed well in this regard and, for what it’s worth, it was a series of unexpected events that led us to make these journeys. I had planned for commute-lunch-commute and that fell through. But it was still ok.

Finally, this can be done on lead-acid batteries with a single charge, so consider the effect of two recent developments which GreenAer will have ready by Mid 2009:

• The new Lithium-Ion Power Pack with a 120km range
• The new fast charger capable of fully charging in an hour

The fast charger won’t be as simple as the current household plug set-up, but it is apparently easy enough to install in a public charging station. Fair enough, our county councils will be a little while yet putting the stations in, but it does give us a tantalising glance at the possibilities for 2010 (or even this year if Dun Laoghaire Country Council follow up on their promise). If you were willing to lease the new Lithium-Ion Power Pack then this day’s driving would barely deplete half the charge. That translates to something like three more trips in and out of the city centre.

I believe it’s safe to say that in 2008, a lot of us wouldn’t have faced the kind of problems we imagine with regard to range. So in 2009 we can look forward to a genuine electric option. It won’t get you down to the country quite yet, but any family looking to economise on the second car now has a wonderful alternative. It can take the kids (most EVs, including the REVAi, have two small back seats), it might save a fair bit of money and it doesn’t spout a single bit of local pollution. While driving electric isn’t for everyone, I think it might well be overly pessimistic to see this purely as a function of someone’s carbon-guilt. As I hope I’ve pointed out here, it’s quite capable of handling the distances many of us drive, even on an unusual day.

Read more on how an electric vehicle can save you money.

Range & Reality is a post from: motricity

Driving distances are relatively small in Ireland.

Ireland relies almost completely on imported oil.

Motorways are not internally essential to our cities (they tend to surround rather than criss-cross them).

Irish people demonstrate a tendency to prefer personal as opposed to public transport.

Ireland will probably fall short of its emissions targets unless something radical is done.

The ETP came up with a target of 10% of all vehicles being electric by 2020 and provisioned for the following:

Tax incentives for business to purchase electric vehicles: Businesses can write off 100% of the cost of purchase against tax under the Accelerated Capital Allowance Scheme

A €1 million project by Sustainable Energy Ireland to research, develop and demonstrate of vehicles nationally

Assistance for individuals purchasing electric vehicles – publication of a “Buyer’s Guide” and a “Cost of Ownership Calculator” by Sustainable Energy Ireland

Establishment of a National Task Force which will examine infrastructure options for national roll-out of electric vehicles, including street charging

This was soon followed by the Smarter Travel plan:

• Move over 500,000 potential car based commuters to other more sustainable forms of transport
• Slash CO2 emissions by at least 4 million tonnes
• Ensure that electric vehicles account for 10% of all vehicles on our roads
• Move over 150,000 people to work by bike
• Create regional e-working centres to help cut commuting times
• Create an all island car sharing website
• Invest in new, safer cycling and walking routes
• Invest in more-park and ride facilities on the outskirts of our major cities

Analysis

There is no lack of ambition here and we applaud their vision. But this can only be a first step. Currently, the tax incentives concern a single measure that apply only to businesses. It comes to very little since corporation tax is already very low - 12.5%. Here is a hypothetical example of how it could work:

There is also a VAT rebate though this was hidden in the 2008 Finance Bill. Company cars in emissions band A can claim 20% of the VAT back. For ten grand’s worth of EV this marks a €240-400 saving (like paying 16.5-18% VAT).

This is not enough. The Smarter Travel Plan seems to be more concerned with the Green Party’s pet project of getting the Irish public on bikes and it was disappointing to hear snide remarks about minister Ryan’s cycling to work (a Garda escort has to follow him). The vision may be bold, but they’re not courting public opinion with what has been widely perceived as a washed-out idea (excuse the pun but biking in Ireland has a major drawback).

Has the ETP used the plural — ‘tax incentives’ – because more are on the way? We hope so because 10% of all vehicles being electric is a big challenge. Ireland’s vehicle population grew by 1.5 million between the years 1997 and 2007. If we assume that something like this will happen again, then we’re talking about something in the order 15%-20% of all new vehicle sales being electric.

This is an intimidating figure. In a decade it would mean 25,000 EVs a year. Assuming that the market will have to build up to these volumes, we could be talking about 60,000 vehicles per year in the space of 3-5 years. This might prove to be significantly more than half the amount of cars sold in 2009 alone.

Two Scenarios

So how can this come to be a reality? The answer seems to lie in two possibilities. The first is the obvious one – a revolution in battery technology. Lithium chemistries have to be delivered at a more reasonable price or else they need to be superseded. A sudden breakthrough might have manufacturers rushing to roll out EVs. For consumers to snap them up immediately, the advantage over conventional fuel would have to be massive. We’re talking about the FCEV here – the Fully Capable Electric Vehicle that does everything except cost more than a euro to refuel.

Alternatively, a large EV market might grow steadily. As economies of size and scale kick in, better batteries will be delivered at lower prices. People start simple with early adopters taking advantage of local convenience and cost. Government incentives eventually grow this cohort so that EVs become ubiquitous. A price threshold would then be reached making the EV a highly competitive option and high volumes would be realised.

A multi-million euro industry would then have a much stronger financial footing for continued research and development. If the FCEV won’t arrive suddenly, its gradual appearance will be down to the pioneering efforts of those early adopters (and the assistance they’re accorded).

We Need Both

There is no question of ‘which’ scenario will occur. For the sake of the planet, it would be great if a breakthrough happened as soon as possible, but there is no way to predict when or indeed even if it will happen. What’s more, it makes no sense from a policy point of view. If the government is betting on technological advancement to do the work then the figure of 250,000 cars simply reflects a baseless conjecture that 2020 will be a year where the ‘big switch’ is well underway.

How will Irish people know that the FCEV has suddenly arrived? Probably by following the example of some other country that has been pushing EVs for years. Or perhaps some manufacturing hub will show us the way. Regardless, if Ireland waits in the wings, the best that it can hope for is an early chance to get on board with a trend it had no part in starting.

The Early Movers

San Francisco is America’s EV capital and it recently announced this loudly with a series of public charging points. The geography of the Bay Area makes it all look like a fairly pointless endeavour. The peninsula itself has a notorious gradient and freeways criss-cross every single urban expanse. At the moment, a Tesla Roadster to the tune of $100,000 is the only possible way to negotiate this infrastructure. So why are the city authorities so keen on EVs?

Take a moment to appreciate how hybrid sales have stayed firmly with Toyota. It’s shown itself to be a technology that you can’t just rip off and offer for cheaper. In over ten years, the Honda Insight has proved to be the only viable competitor and this was simply down their early positioning and good investment. It exposes the importance of expertise and we’re about to see this all over again with GM’s plug-in hybrid (PHEV). Will they deliver a good car at a good price? Are the public prepared to endorse it?

If GM gets it right they’ll probably leave behind their financial woes and become a new type of market leader. But their refusal to announce a price and their constant stalling seem to suggest a lack of expertise. It’s strange because GM is one of the biggest automotive companies in the world but the fact of the matter is that they just haven’t been building the right cars. Even if they do come through with an excellent vehicle, people will have to be willing to invest in the new technology.

The proposition might be so cheap that it just can’t be ignored. Failing that, government will have to embark on some kind of ‘fiscal equalisation’, as Mitsubishi call it. At the very least, enthusiasm will have to be captured and information disseminated. The public and the press must be prepared for what will be on offer. This may even involve giving GM a second chance if they botch the release of the Volt. Thankfully, the Obama Administration is offering the subsidies that might do the job and bailout loans have come with the condition that GM overhaul their range to produce tomorrow’s cars.

Early movers are those who successfully mount the technological, social and political challenges all at once. They benefit by serving as an example that the rest of the world follows. But this isn’t as ephemeral as it might sound. If Ireland were to establish itself an early mover then it could feasibly become a manufacturing hub and a centre of R&D.

With regard to the latter, our population has the educational credentials and the green sector is one of the few that’s still creating jobs. More are on the way and with adequate subsidy the country might well have a shot at successfully bidding on one of the many new EV start-ups. While this looks like the growth scenario, the possibility of a breakthrough only makes action more urgent. Some smart choices could hold the prospect becoming a world leader in a development that will eventually realise a market of hundreds of millions vehicles.

The Shopping List: Take You’re Pick

We need more incentives at the individual level. Every day, we loose ground on becoming an early mover. Like it or not, something bold will have to be done. Slightly disturbing the bus lanes, briefing traffic wardens and facing incredulity from Top Gear is something we’ll just have to deal with because it’s time to look at the bigger picture. Ireland needs jobs and it needs spending to resume. EVs represent a great investment but a poor gimmick so here’s the shopping list, Mr. Dempsey. Take your pick, but don’t let it grow any longer:

Why Should We Subsidise? is a post from: motricity

It’s very hard to see the resemblance. Massive amounts of the original design appeal has been shaved off, apparently for aerodynamics.

Personally, I think they just should have tried to push style over substance. That is, after all, what Americans do best. And now we have this nonsense of 230mpg. The EPA has come out with a bemused acclimation. They don’t know, there’s no way to measure it, the standards just don’t exist for plug-ins.

Part of the problem with major OEMs has been that they’re either too loud or too cautious. In GMs case its both. Time frames, style, price and soon, capability will all disappoint. Why didn’t they just get everything else right and bring a PHEV-15 to the market - that’s 15 miles of battery (the Volt will apparently have 40). That would do. It would at least get the concept on the road and into the showrooms.

Someone has to start. Look at the G-Whiz. Fair enough, I have more than an interest in that one but the facts are there. REVA have had cars on the road, even if they do look weird an remain confined to the cities but at least that’s a start.

Maybe it’s just the way our culture works. The EV or the plug-in hybrid won’t be legitimate until some company releases a car that matches its combustion-engine counterpart in every respect except that it doesn’t take a liquid fuel. So far, Nissan stand the best chance. They’ve got the production line capacity but it will still take years to drive down the costs.

For that reason GM should have paid more attention. They should have done everything they could to avoid disappointment, even if that meant sacrificing much of the range. The Prius, after all, is just a highly efficient car. The Volt could have been a cool looking but very novel vehicle. Instead they’ve tried to build a car for everyone and that’s what a PHEV-40 can be. The concept of a range extended vehicle is just so tantalising because it smuggles the EV in without anyone really noticing.

But people have noticed GM because they haven’t shut up about it FOR YEARS. I know someone in the US EV industry who is sceptical about GMs ability to bring the car to market within 3-5 years. That seems pessimistic but it does reference their approach quite well - promise the world, take so long to deliver it that even the biggest fans will be going over the ‘perfect car’ with a tooth comb to reveal its flaws.

The American public would have been a lot more forgiving if a cool looking but crap car had hit the market. Sure they’re used to that kind of carry on anyway.

Setting of for a Dissapointment? is a post from: motricity

The pace of development in battery technology might well scuttle Better Place. MIT recently announced that they’ve successfully used viruses to build a lithium-ion battery that charges fully in 10 minutes. Still slightly slower than the typical gas station stop but seemingly adequate (especially if the entire thing costs a about two euros).

Something else interests me and Nissan have been making noises about this recently. ‘Plugging in’ might too become outdated as contactless inductive charging comes on the scene. South Korea has even looked at installing metal strips on their highways (interestingly, per kilometre it comes in at about a tenth the cost of building a subway). A suitably built vehicle could technically charge as it drives down the main main roads.

A large amount of the hassle could be stripped out of charging in this way. It’s quite conceivable that we’ll recharge our cars without leaving them, either by pulling into a special bay or even at traffic lights.

Until that point, you can expect companies like Evoasis to set up charging stations that act as specialist battery centres. They’ll be experts with regard to every type on the market and so the initial handling of dangerous voltages will be handled by their ground staff. Yes, waiting times initially won’t be ideal but they’ll attempt to offset some of the inconvenience with a dedicated waiting area (a kind of cafe or work lounge, probably like you find at an airport).

And the initial inceptions of this kind of infrastructure won’t be static. Evoasis sees itself as something of a science centre and there’s a lot of credence to this idea. There’ll be a lot of money in it for those who discover good rapid charging mechanisms, but they need people on the road first.

Better than Better Place is a post from: motricity

The volthead has just overtaken the petrolhead and yes.. it is snowing in hell!

According to Tesla, the range concerns are deeply disingenuous. The silver car never ran out so the men in white coats are just simulating what would happen if… anyway, this isn’t the point.

As I said, the Nissan LEAF needs to thrill to be a winner. Now I’m not so sure. My guess is that their target market will value efficiency over sportiness. Electric cars really come into their own in an urban setting. They are about two and a half times more efficient. Also, from grid to wheel only about 10% of the energy is lost (compare that to conventional fuel where about 80% of the energy gets lost before it genuinely propels the car).

The problem is that driving an economic vehicle is all too often mistaken for a smug sense of self importance. ‘Saving the planet’ becomes the moral disguise with allows hybrid drivers to close their eyes wile the lecture us all (see South Park’s brilliant take on this - episode ‘Smug Alert!’)

It doesn’t have to be this way. Efficiency might just be a personal thing. You know you’re not wasting energy when you’re driving in traffic. And this doesn’t have to be the whole ‘because that harms poor Johnny Polar Bear’ thing. For a start it can be more about cash than carbon and it’s hardly impossible to value keeping your house in order without being smug.

But don’t expect Jeremy Clarkson to understand. He has enough money to pay the cleaners. And I hear sets barrels of oil on fire in his back garden just for kicks.

Rethinking the LEAF is a post from: motricity

I would like to say it’s conventional looking, though I can’t help but find it a bit Japanese. Not to my personal taste but not exactly radical in design either. It’s as if they’re trying to say something like

look, this is for 95% of your driving needs, and its full of advantages that make up for the fact that you might have to rent a car to drive down the country.

So what are these advantages? Well, I suppose it’s ultra modern, super clean and your fuel costs just show up annually on the electricity bill (I would guess, about €200 a year if you charge at night). There is the novelty aspect of driving an electric car but this alone is unlikely to cut the mustard.

The entire proposition depends on three things. The first is technological competence. Will those lithium-ion batteries really do the 160km they’re supposed to? Let’s presume that they do because if any of the major OEMs are going to do it, Nissan can. They’ve spent years and years developing BEVs so it’s exciting to see their expertise come one into the market.

Two questions remain - how does it drive and how much does it cost? Both of these have yet to be answered.

Nissan keep saying comparable comparable comparable… but those of us who have driven electric know that a lot can be said both for and against the entire principle. The Tesla will apparently leave a smile on your face for a week but what do you expect with 0-60 in 3 seconds?

A middle performance vehicle is a very different ball game and a far more dangerous one too. For all it’s bells and whistles, people will not look kindly on a relatively conventional looking car with sub-par performance.

The ideal situation would be a thrilling ride combined with a very comparable price. Something within a few grand of a petrol car of similar size and quality. If they can excite people with electric propulsion in the way Tesla has, then they might well have a very good car.

Nissan Release the LEAF is a post from: motricity