The Hydrogen Hypothesis

Here is an illuminating reply to an article on GM’s potential abandonment of their H2 R&D

I am involved in GM’s Project Driveway.  The fact of the matter is that the fuel cell R&D is done, and the design for commercial fuel cell powertrains is complete.  The cost projections are that with production of 1M units, the economies of scale would render the cost commensurate with current V6 powertrains.  This means that GM has the capability -today- to manufacture cost competitive fuel cell vehicles.  The trick, though, is how to get to 1M vehicles.

Will GM Abandon Hydrogen Cars?, Greentech Media, 25 July 2009

It will be some trick. Those involved in BEVs already know the difficulties involved in getting high volumes on the roads. Hypothetically, 1 million BEVs means that battery technology falls in price so the argument works both ways.

It’s also misleading to pitch the electric car against the hydrogen car. The latter is an electric car, it just charges the battery with a gaseous fuel and this allows for astronomical ranges. But lets cut to the chase here. Cars won’t run an water until they invent a machine that, by design, manages to split water molecules without any energy input. This might not be science fiction one day but until then, we’re talking about using lots of energy to produce and store the hydrogen. The entire process is about 10% efficient.

But maybe the R&D will unearth a new hyper-efficient electrolysis process. Still, don’t be fooled by the above talk. The vehicle R&D might be complete but that’s not the main challenge. You can rent a Honda H2 car in California and I believe there are even a few filling stations. But how much does the car actually cost? Does anybody know?

I suspect that this is the death knell of the H2 concept for the moment and it’s because BEVs are now verging on marketability. All that moaning about Obama’s dis-inclusion of H2 R&D from the stimulus seems like a refusal to accept that ‘cost projections’ on the basis of a million units are of no interest to the consumer. And it’s a shitty business pretence to take on anyway.

But then again, GM have grown accustomed to government handouts these days. Maybe the US government can just subsidise the first million vehicles to the hilt. Maybe they can just raffel them instead. Will there be any money left to roll out the infrastructure?

Some market economy.